• Seymour, Robert S.
  University of Maine
  
• Lemin, Ronald C., Jr.
  Cooperative Forestry Research Unit
  

The FORMAN wood supply model, developed by the New Brunswick Dept. Natural Resources, was extensively modified for forecasting future development and structure of Maine's timber resources. Data from over 2100 plots collected during the 1980-82 USDA Forest Service inventory of Maine were used to stratify area by forest types, development class, and site productivity. Empirical yield curves were formulated for 7 commercial species groups in 12 site-type strata. New procedures for aging and simulating development of mixed-species, mixed-age stands are described, and compared with conventional data. Results show that the spruce-fir shortfall, predicted in the early 1980's, may be forestalled, due to a less severe budworm outbreak and more favorable forest growth resulting from the expanding area under intensive management. The long-run sustainable harvest of other species is approximately equal to the best estimate of current removals. Future harvest expansions; however, would eventually result in shortfalls lf not accompanied by expanded intensive management.