- Simmons, Gary A.
Michigan State University
An analysis of total annual spruce budworm moth captures from 1961-1976 was conducted using 10 light trap locations in the state of Maine. These locations were selected because no budworm-caused defoliation had occurred between the 1950's and the general state-wide outbreak in the mid 1970's. Outbreaks were detectable from 4 to 7 years before defoliation occurred using curves fitted to the time series data. Other methods of smoothing data points were tried but most did not compare favorably with curve-fitting to raw data. Such early detection methods may prove useful in management since 8 to 10 years would pass before tree mortality would occur.