Use of Light Trap Data to Predict Outbreaks of the Spruce Budworm (1980)
Problem Addressed: Spruce budworm
Goal(s)/Objective(s): Examine and analyze a time series of data obtained from light traps deployed at various locations throughout a given geographic area.
Key Findings: Such early detection methods may prove useful in management since 8 to 10 years would pass before tree mortality would occur.
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- Simmons, Gary A.
Michigan State University
An analysis of total annual spruce budworm moth captures from 1961-1976 was conducted using 10 light trap locations in the state of Maine. These locations were selected because no budworm-caused defoliation had occurred between the 1950's and the general state-wide outbreak in the mid 1970's. Outbreaks were detectable from 4 to 7 years before defoliation occurred using curves fitted to the time series data. Other methods of smoothing data points were tried but most did not compare favorably with curve-fitting to raw data. Such early detection methods may prove useful in management since 8 to 10 years would pass before tree mortality would occur.
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