• Chen, Cen
  University of Maine, School of Forest Resources
  
• Rahimzadeh-Bajgiran, Parinaz
  University of Maine, School of Forest Resources
  
• Weiskittel, Aaron
  University of Maine, School of Forest Resources
  

Simulated spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) defoliation generally becomes ubiquitous in 3 years after its initiation in agreement with historical observations despite varying environmental and stand conditions over large ranges. Current-year defoliation has almost no correlation with defoliation more than 1 year ago at the same location, which may be related to the role of SBW dispersal in sustaining defoliation across space and time. Mitigation practices like insecticide spraying may be more efficient if applied early to initial spots (epicenters) of defoliation, while management probably should focus on improving forests’ resilience to withstand repeated defoliation by altering species composition. Our model provides quantitative information flexible in spatial and temporal scales yet directly usable in existing forest growth and yield modeling frameworks and management decision support systems.