• Brackley, Allen M.
  University of Maine Graduate School
  

The first FORMAN wood supply analysis was completed in New Brunswick, a Province that supports forests of similar area, volume and species composition as Maine, in 1982. According to the 1982 study in New Brunswick, sustainable harvest without any investment in silviculture, was estimated as 2,2851 M cords. The maximum sustainable harvest with intensive management has estimated as 2,700 M cords. In Maine, the FORMAN model was modified and used as part of the forest for the Future program. Empirical yield curves were used in this analysis. In this thesis an alternative formulation of the Maine model, based on stylized curves, was developed. The general response of the model, given similar input conditions, was in agreement with values contained in the "Forest for the Future report." Sustainable harvest after the year 2000 was estimated as 2,884 M cords in the above-mentioned report.

Using the thesis formulation, sustainable harvest from 1980 onward without investing in silviculture was 2,772 M cords. Sustainable harvest as of June 1989, assuming removals of 3346 M cords annually between 1980 and 1995 and the levels of silviculture reported in "Forest for the Future" was estimated as 2,698 M cords. Maximum allowable cut effect (ACE) possible after 1995 was 30106 M cords. Inclusion of commercial thinning in the model increased the sustainable harvest about three (3) percent. The cost of generating a cord of ACE was greater than the current stumping value of the harvested material. It is suggested that special considerations should be given when calculating income tax on ACE-based volumes. It was noted that the level of intensive management in Maine is lower than in New Brunswick. In the future, New Brunswick will be able to maintain higher harvest levels of spruce-fir than Maine.